Understanding Parlay Betting
Posted : admin On 8/2/2022
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Over Under Betting is the second most popular type of NFL betting, just behind spread betting. Over Under Betting is also known as “Game Total Betting” and you will often see it be referred to as either term. Beginner NFL bettors may be confused by Over Under Betting, but it is very easy to learn and understand once explained.
- The three betting trends are fairly simple to follow and they’re more volatile as tip-off of a game approaches. The Side percentage is for the point-spread while the Money is for money-line wagers and that field usually skews heavily to favorites since not many bettors expect huge upsets, especially when the point-spread is high.
- Feb 08, 2021 Understanding betting odds is key to successful betting. If you do not understand betting odds and the probabilities that they imply, you will struggle to succeed in betting on sports long term. You don’t need to be a math genius to succeed in betting on sports, but if you do not understand what betting odds reflect, you are setting yourself.
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In Over Under Betting the oddsmakers will set a number of points in which they think both teams will score in total throughout the whole game (including overtime if necessary). Bettors will then be able to bet on the total number of points scored by both teams combined to be over or under that set game total number. For example, the number may be set at 42.5 points. If you bet the “over” you would need a combined 43 or more points from both teams in order to win your bet (a 28-17 score would win you the bet). If you were to place your money on the “under” you would need both teams to combine for 42 or less points throughout the game (a 21-17 game would win you the under bet).
Example of NFL Over Under Bet
Below is an example of what an NFL Over Under line would look like:
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Over 37.5 (-110)
Under 37.5 (-110)
The number next to the Over and Under is always going to be the same, and represents the set game total. In this case the game total was set by the oddsmakers at 37.5. You would then have the choice to place your bet on both teams scoring more than 37.5 combined points (the Over) or less than 37.5 combined points (the Under). The (-110) beside each choice represents the betting odds, which I will explain more below.
If the final score ended up being Pittsburgh 21 Baltimore 14 we would have a total combined score of 35 points, and therefore the “under” bet would win.
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Other NFL Over Under Betting Information
Although the most common odds set for Over Under lines are -110 or 10% juice on either side it definitely isn’t always the case. The set game total number will always be changing in small increments before kickoff, but the odds will always slightly change before the game total does. Using our above example we might see the odds changed to “Over (-105) and Under (-115)” before we see the game total number adjusted to 37.
That brings me to my next point about NFL Over Under Betting – the game total doesn’t always have to be a decimal number. Although more often than not they are a decimal numbers, you will often see the game total being an even integer such as 39, 41, 44, etc. With an even number game total you may see the combined score end up exactly on the number. In that case the bets on both the Over and Under would be refunded. For example, if the game total was set at 41 and we had a final score of 24-17 it would be considered a “push” and all bets on either side of the number are refunded back to the bettors.
Some of the better online betting sites, such as 5Dimes, may even allow you to adjust the game total either way with the odds of course reflecting the change (known as alternate lines). For example, the game total was set at 41.5 and you thought the oddsmakers did a bad job and the game was going to be a lot higher scoring. In some sportsbooks you would be able to select an alternate game total of 44.5 for example and bet the over, which would payout a lot more than the over on the 41.5 line.
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NFL Strategy Articles:
We have a professional sports bettor writing strategy articles here at TheSportsGeek.com. Check them out on the sports betting strategy page of our website, and hopefully you will pick up some tips that will help you make some money betting on NFL totals.
Bettors should always look for a mathematical edge rather than rely on their impulses. Learning how to use the Kelly Criterion, for example, is a great way for bettors to determine how much they should stake. Read on to find out.
Prior to placing a bet bettors should consider six important questions: who, what, when, where, why and how? But for this article, it is the how, as in how much to bet, we are interested in.
Popular staking method which suggests that stake should be proportional to the perceived edge.
Consider placing a bet on the English Premier League. We can adapt these questions accordingly:
- Who to bet on? Manchester United
- What to bet on? Top 4 finish
- When to bet on? Now
- Where to bet on? Pinnacle tend to offer the best odds
- Why to bet on? They seem to be under-priced
- How much? How much to bet on this outcome?
Most articles focus on the first five questions, typically using mathematical or statistical justifications on answering ‘why’ - such as the article on how to use Monte Carlo methods.
In making financial decisions, the key issue is not only finding the adequate financial products to invest in but also deciding how to subdivide one’s portfolio. Similarly, an important question for a bettor, is how much to wager?
Many papers recommend using the Kelly Criterion or a derivative of it - such as my 2013 paper appearing in the The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics. In essence, the Kelly Criterion calculates the proportion of your own funds to bet on an outcome whose odds are higher than expected, so that your own funds grow exponentially.
B = the Decimal odds -1
P = the probability of success
Q = the probability of failure (i.e. 1-p)
Using a coin as an example of Kelly Criterion staking
For example, consider you are betting on a coin to land on heads at 2.00. However, the coin is biased and has a 52% chance of ending up on heads.
Understanding Parlay Betting Poker
In this case:
P= 0.52
Q = 1-0.52 = 0.48
B = 2-1 = 1.
This works out at: (0.52x1 – 0.48) / 1 = 0.04
Therefore the Kelly Criterion would recommend you bet 4%. A positive percentage implies an edge in favour of your bankroll, so your funds grow exponentially. You can also test the criterion for different values in this online sheet by using the code below.
Understanding Parlay Betting Odds
Ultimately the Kelly Criterion offers a distinct advantage over other staking methods such as Fibonacci and Arbitrage methods as there is a lower risk. However, it does require precise calculation of the likelihood of an event outcome, and discipline of this method will not provide explosive growth of your bankroll.
Understanding Parlay Betting
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